Are SpaceX Bulls Deluding Themselves? This Wall Street Analyst Might Convince You So
SpaceX stock has fallen below its IPO price for the first time, and analysts are reevaluating their price targets. One analyst predicts no free cash flow-positive year before 2035, and the company's valuation already makes it one of the most valuable companies in the world.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
A Wall Street analyst's prediction of no free cash flow-positive year before 2035 has some investors rethinking their stance on SpaceX. The company's valuation already makes it one of the most valuable companies in the world, leaving it with limited upside.
Imagine you're investing in a company that might not make any money for a really long time. That's basically what's happening with SpaceX. The company is very valuable, but it might take a decade for it to start making money. That's a long time to wait, and some investors are starting to get worried.
Analysis
A $60B Vote of Confidence
SpaceX's IPO was a historic event, with the company raising $1.5 trillion in valuation. However, the recent sell-off has some investors questioning whether the stock's valuation is justified. One analyst's prediction of no free cash flow-positive year before 2035 highlights the risks involved in investing in the company. With a decade-long wait for positive free cash flow, investors must consider whether the stock's current valuation is justified.
Why Bulls Are Deluding Themselves
The bulls' case for SpaceX is premised on the company successfully enduring nearly a decade of deep cash losses. If SpaceX accomplishes the goals it has set for itself, like making human life interplanetary, then it should pay off, but optimistically, it's still decades away from that. The recent sell-off seems to reflect the reality that it will take many years for the company's investments to pay off, if they ever do.
The Road Ahead
Given that, the stock seems destined to continue to fall as 2035, its first year of positive free cash flow according to Morgan Stanley, is still a long way away. Read Next Jul 22, 2026 • By Daniel Foelber SpaceX Earnings Are Coming Aug. 4. Here's Why Aug. 6 Could Prove to Be the Real Stress Test With SPCX Down 47% From Its High. Jul 22, 2026 • By Ryan Vanzo SpaceX Plans Starship Launch For Tomorrow. Here's What Investors Need To Know Jul 22, 2026 • By Geoffrey Seiler Predicting SpaceX's Valuation at the End of 2026 Jul 22, 2026 • By Jack Delaney What History Says About Stocks That Join the Nasdaq-100 and What It Means for SpaceX Jul 22, 2026 • By Anthony Di Pizio Should You Buy SpaceX Stock Before Aug. 4? Jul 22, 2026 • By Sean Williams Elon Musk Just Claimed That "SpaceX Will Be Worth More Than Earth," but the Bond Market Strongly Disagrees
Key points
- SpaceX's IPO was a historic event, with the company raising $1.5 trillion in valuation.
- The recent sell-off has some investors questioning whether the stock's valuation is justified.
- One analyst's prediction of no free cash flow-positive year before 2035 highlights the risks involved in investing in the company.
- The bulls' case for SpaceX is premised on the company successfully enduring nearly a decade of deep cash losses.
- The recent sell-off seems to reflect the reality that it will take many years for the company's investments to pay off, if they ever do.
If SpaceX can successfully endure nearly a decade of deep cash losses, it might pay off in the long run. The company has bold ambitions, including in AI, launching orbital data centers, and eventually colonizing Mars.
The recent sell-off in SpaceX stock highlights the risks involved in investing in the company. With a decade-long wait for positive free cash flow, investors must consider whether the stock's current valuation is justified.
