Bitcoin caught between critical onchain support and an options showdown
Bitcoin is stuck between key onchain cost-basis levels and a large Deribit options expiry, keeping price action compressed.
Intelligence analysis by GPT-5.4 Mini
Bitcoin rebounded from its 128-day moving average near $74,500, but it still sits below major onchain resistance near $77,000. A $6.6 billion Deribit options expiry and heavy supply concentration between $74,000 and $83,000 are helping keep BTC range-bound.
Bitcoin is bouncing between two fences. One fence is built by people who bought around the current price, and the other fence is built by traders using options bets.
When a lot of people bought near the same prices, that area can act like a magnet. Price often gets pulled back toward it, like a ball rolling in a shallow bowl.
A big options expiry can also keep the price from running too far. It is like a tug-of-war where both sides are trying to stop the ball from escaping the middle.
Analysis
Market setup
Bitcoin rose after briefly touching its 128-day moving average near $74,500, but the article says it is still trading below two important onchain levels around $77,000: the true market mean and the short-term holder cost basis. Those levels matter because they reflect the aggregate acquisition prices of recent market participants, which can act like support or resistance.
Why the range is tight
The story also points to the May 29 Deribit options expiry, with about $6.6 billion in open interest set to roll off. The biggest call concentration is around the $80,000 strike, while the largest put positioning is at $75,000. That setup can encourage market makers to hedge in ways that keep price action pinned between those strikes as expiry approaches.
Supply concentration
Glassnode data in the article shows that more than 15% of bitcoin's circulating supply was acquired between $74,000 and $83,000. That is a dense band of cost basis, and it helps explain why the market may struggle to move cleanly out of the current range. The article also notes that bitcoin has tracked the 2026 realized price, around $76,200, since early April, reinforcing the idea that cohort cost-basis levels are driving market structure more than simple round-number psychology.
Key points
- Bitcoin rebounded from its 128-day moving average near $74,500.
- BTC remains below major onchain levels around $77,000.
- Deribit's May 29 expiry has about $6.6 billion in open interest.
- Large option positions sit at the $75,000 put and $80,000 call strikes.
- More than 15% of bitcoin supply was acquired between $74,000 and $83,000.
