Bitcoin long-term resistance in focus as analysis sees selling risk above $85K
Glassnode analysis indicates Bitcoin faces significant resistance around $85,000, a level where 4.3% of the BTC supply last moved onchain, largely linked to a single large holder's activity.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
Crypto analytics firm Glassnode warns that Bitcoin's price faces a critical resistance zone between $84,000 and $85,000. This level is tied to a substantial portion of the BTC supply that last moved onchain at that price, and it also represents a key cost basis for many long-term holders who may sell if the price recovers to this range.
Imagine Bitcoin is like a special collectible card. A lot of people bought this card when it was super expensive, around $85,000. Now, if the card's value goes back up to that high price, many of those people might decide to sell their cards to get their money back, making it harder for the card's value to go even higher. It's like a big wall of sellers waiting at that price.
Analysis
Glassnode's latest 'The Week Onchain' report highlights a critical resistance zone for Bitcoin (BTC) between $84,000 and $85,000. This level has historically acted as both support and resistance, with BTC struggling to sustain daily closes above it. The analysis suggests that overcoming this barrier would be a significant bullish signal, turning the resistance into new support.
864,520 BTC
A substantial portion of the total Bitcoin supply, specifically 864,520 BTC, last moved onchain when the price traded between $84,000 and $85,000. This amount represents 4.3% of the entire BTC supply, a significant volume that could influence market dynamics.
Glassnode's research links the majority of these transactions to a single large holder who was transferring funds between multiple wallets. While self-transfers typically do not directly impact price, the market has consistently respected this $84,000-$85,000 range over the past 11 months, indicating its psychological and technical importance.
Long-term holders
The $85,000 mark is particularly significant for Bitcoin's long-term holders (LTHs), defined as entities that have held their BTC for at least 155 days without selling. This cohort collectively owns approximately 4 million coins that last moved onchain within the $85,000 to $118,000 range, with most of these movements occurring in 2025.
More than half of these LTHs acquired their coins above the current price. Consequently, if Bitcoin's price recovers towards the $85,000 level, many of these holders may be incentivized to sell their assets to recoup their initial investment. This potential selling pressure from a large segment of the investor base could create a formidable ceiling for BTC's price.
SOPR
The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides further insight into the current market sentiment among this key investor group. The SOPR metric compares the price at which LTH coins are moving onchain to their previous transaction price.
Currently, the LTH SOPR sits at 0.99. A value below 1 indicates that, on aggregate, long-term holders are moving their supply at a loss. This suggests that many LTHs are underwater on their investments, reinforcing the idea that a recovery to their cost basis around $85,000 could trigger a wave of selling as they seek to break even.
Key points
- Bitcoin faces strong resistance between $84,000 and $85,000, a level it has struggled to sustain daily closes above.
- Approximately 4.3% of the total BTC supply (864,520 BTC) last moved onchain within this price range, largely linked to a single large holder.
- Long-term holders (LTHs) own about 4 million coins with a cost basis between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly acquired in 2025.
- Many LTHs are currently holding at an aggregate loss, indicated by an LTH SOPR of 0.99.
- A recovery to $85,000 could trigger significant selling from LTHs looking to recoup their investments.
If Bitcoin manages to sustain daily closes above the $85,000 resistance band, it could signal a strong bullish reversal, turning this historical resistance into a new support level. This would likely encourage further upward momentum as selling pressure from long-term holders subsides or is absorbed by new demand.
The analysis highlights a significant sell-side risk above $85,000, as many long-term holders who bought at higher prices may offload their coins to break even. This could create a strong ceiling for Bitcoin's price, leading to repeated rejections and potential downward corrections if the selling pressure proves too strong.
Market signals
- BTC Glassnode analysis identifies a significant sell-side risk for Bitcoin above the $85,000 level due to long-term holders' cost basis.
AI-generated analysis of potential market relevance. Not financial advice.
