Democrats poised to nominate Troy Jackson to challenge Susan Collins

A $60B Vote of Confidence

Troy Jackson, a former logger and longtime legislator from Allagash, a tiny town at the northern tip of the state, is expected to win the nod after delegate candidates supporting him dominated at county meetings last weekend and all of his major opponents dropped out. He will challenge Susan Collins, the only Republican representing a state President Donald Trump lost in 2024, in a nationally watched, must-win race for his party.

Jackson's path to victory is not without its challenges. He has to not only build a statewide campaign but also raise millions of dollars to compete on the airwaves. Most of all, he has to convince huge numbers of Mainers who have repeatedly backed Collins for decades that it's time for her to go.

Jackson's supporters believe he will have unique appeal to working-class voters and cut into Collins' margins in rural Maine. It's the first time Collins, from Aroostook County, will be facing an opponent who also hails from the same sprawling area.

A Democratic strategist with experience in Maine races noted that a Democratic statewide win against Collins involves narrowing a likely loss in the rural 2nd Congressional District to high single digits. 'Being from Aroostook County and having shown a pretty significant overperformance in his state Senate races, [Jackson] is well-suited to do that,' the strategist said, later adding: 'Of course, Sen. Collins is not a pushover. She's done very well over the state but also particularly the 2nd District.'

Other Democrats noted that Jackson mainly has to run up the score in traditionally Democratic strongholds of Portland and other cities. 'There's a path without expanding the map,' said David Farmer, a Maine Democratic strategist. He noted that Collins' 2020 opponent, former state House Speaker Sara Gideon, underperformed the Democratic presidential ticket in Portland and other blue areas, due in part to a third-party candidate.

Farmer was optimistic that this year, Democrats would stay united. 'The reactions to Trump, to the ICE killing in Biddeford , to high prices, to the war [with Iran] — that solidifies Democrats so they're less likely to drift than in 2020,' Farmer said. But the Democratic strategist noted that when Jackson ran in the party's primary for governor earlier this year, he struggled in more affluent parts of the state where Collins has performed well, even as they have shifted away from the GOP in the Trump era.

'He'll have to do better in those areas if he wants to win,' the strategist said.