Huawei and Apple bend to a tougher market with foldable phones as memory crunch bites
Apple and Huawei are set to launch new foldable phones, aiming to boost a struggling global smartphone market expected to decline 17% in 2026. Analysts anticipate Apple's entry will significantly reshape the foldable sector.
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite
The global smartphone market faces a projected 17% decline in 2026, but the upcoming launches of Apple's first foldable iPhone and Huawei's Mate XT 2 are seen as potential catalysts for growth. Apple's entry is expected to dramatically alter the foldable market's trajectory, challenging established players.
Imagine phones are like toys. The toy market is getting a bit boring, with fewer kids buying new ones. But two big toy makers, Apple and Huawei, are about to release super cool new "folding" phones. These special toys are so exciting that grown-ups think they will make everyone want to buy new phones again, especially Apple's new folding phone, which could become very popular very fast.
Analysis
Apple's Entry into Foldables
The smartphone industry is navigating a significant downturn, with projections indicating a substantial 17 per cent drop in shipments for 2026. In this challenging environment, the anticipated launch of Apple's first foldable iPhone, alongside Huawei's Mate XT 2, is being viewed as a critical development. Analysts suggest that Apple's long-awaited entry into the foldable market is not merely about introducing a new product category but about fundamentally altering the market's dynamics and potentially reigniting growth in a sector that has been losing momentum. The timing of Apple's September 9 event, which will also feature standard model refreshes and the debut of new CEO John Ternus, underscores the significance of this product launch for the company and the industry at large.
Huawei's Mate XT 2
Huawei's upcoming Mate XT 2, an upgrade to its existing foldable device, is set to be unveiled just two days before Apple's major announcement. This positions Huawei as a key player in the foldable space, having already established a presence with its trifold technology. The company's continued investment in foldable form factors, even amidst broader market challenges, highlights its commitment to innovation in this niche. The competition between Apple and Huawei in the foldable segment is expected to be fierce, with both companies vying for market share and consumer attention. This rivalry could accelerate the development and adoption of foldable technology, pushing the boundaries of smartphone design and functionality.
Market Trajectory and Leadership
Industry experts like Nabila Popal from IDC believe that Apple's entry will fundamentally change the foldable market's trajectory. Popal forecasts that Apple could ship over 17 million foldable iPhones by 2027, capturing approximately 40 per cent of the global foldable market. This projection suggests that Apple is poised to challenge established leaders such as Huawei and Samsung in markets where they have historically dominated. The rapid ascent of Apple in this relatively new product category, within less than two years of its expected lifecycle, is considered an extraordinary outcome. It signals a potential shift in market leadership and underscores the impact that a major player's endorsement can have on emerging technologies.
Key points
- Global smartphone shipments are projected to fall by 17% in 2026.
- Apple and Huawei are launching new foldable phones soon.
- Apple's entry is expected to significantly boost the foldable market.
- Analysts predict Apple could capture 40% of the foldable market by 2027.
The introduction of foldable phones by major players like Apple and Huawei could inject much-needed vitality into the global smartphone market, driving innovation and potentially leading to a resurgence in shipments. Apple's entry, in particular, is expected to significantly boost the foldable category's growth and market share, challenging existing leaders and accelerating the adoption of new form factors.
Despite the optimism surrounding new foldable launches, the broader smartphone market faces significant headwinds, including soaring component costs and a general economic slowdown. If these foldable devices fail to capture consumer imagination or prove too expensive, they may not be enough to offset the overall decline in smartphone shipments.
