Prediction market traders skeptical Bessent will send yields lower

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Prediction Market Analysis on Treasury Secretary Bessent's Efforts":"Kalshi prediction market traders believe there's a 56% chance the 10-year Treasury note yield will end 2026 above or at 4.75%, with just 27% odds it will finish the year above 5%. On Polymarket, speculators place 2-in-3 odds that the 10-year Treasury note yield will cross 4.8% at some point in 2026. These predictions contrast with Treasury Secretary Bessent's efforts to cap yields, suggesting market skepticism.","

Market Response to Treasury Department Actions":"Following the Treasury Department's announcement to double buybacks of U.S. debt, yields initially fell but then rose again. The Treasury may consider using its $1 trillion General Account to fund increased buybacks, according to senior officials. However, prediction market traders remain skeptical of the long-term impact of these actions.","

Broader Context of Bond Market Volatility":"Global bonds experienced a sell-off last week, influenced by concerns over potential higher inflation and the U.S.-Iran conflict. The U.S. national debt also surpassed $40 trillion, adding further pressure on domestic yields. These factors contribute to the uncertainty surrounding Treasury Secretary Bessent's efforts to stabilize yields."}