Stop Overreacting to China’s Missile Test

A Milestone for Beijing's Nuclear Forces

China's recent submarine-launched ballistic missile test was a significant event, marking the first such test in decades. The test involved a missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads and was conducted from the South China Sea, flying roughly 4,500 miles over open water before splashing down near the Solomon Islands. The test was likely an effort to validate critical technologies, test operational concepts, and demonstrate the People's Liberation Army's nuclear forces' capabilities.

Technical Reasons for Conducting SLBM Tests

China has compelling technical reasons to conduct SLBM tests. Although Beijing has pursued a sea-based nuclear deterrent since the 1960s, its first ballistic missile submarine suffered from significant technical problems and rarely went to sea. Only in the 2000s did China begin deploying the more capable Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. Those submarines reportedly began conducting regular patrols with nuclear warheads in 2015 — relatively recently compared to China's land-based nuclear forces, which have been operational for decades and benefit from extensive testing data.

Geographic Constraints on Testing

There are good geographic reasons for China's lack of real-world testing. China's access to the broader Pacific is blocked by the first island chain—consisting of Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines—which constrains its ability to test long-range missiles without overflying nearby countries as well as its ability to deploy submarines into the Pacific without being detected by U.S. or Japanese naval forces. Because of these obstacles, China rarely tests long-range missiles over the Pacific and instead has chosen to operate its nuclear submarines in bastions—heavily defended areas in the South China Sea and the Bohai Sea where submarines can hide in crowded waters close to the mainland.