Trump’s tariff war pushes Brazil’s trade towards China as US share hits record low
The US share of Brazilian exports fell to its lowest level since 1997 in the first half of 2026, while China widened its lead as the country’s top trading partner, according to the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Brazil's trade with the US has declined significantly due to the tariff war, with China emerging as the country's top trading partner. The shift reverses the map from two decades ago, when 17 states counted the US as their largest market.
Imagine Brazil is a store that sells things to other countries. The US used to be one of its best customers, but now it's buying less from Brazil. China, on the other hand, is buying more and more from Brazil. This is like a big shift in who Brazil's friends are in the global market.
Analysis
A Shift in Trade Dynamics
Brazil's trade with the US has been declining significantly due to the ongoing tariff war. The American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil reported that the US share of Brazilian exports fell to its lowest level since 1997 in the first half of 2026. This decline is a direct result of the US imposing tariffs on Brazilian goods, which has led to a shift in trade dynamics.
China's Growing Influence
China has emerged as Brazil's top trading partner, with its share of Brazilian exports rising to 31.5 per cent from 28.9 per cent. This growth is a testament to the strong economic ties between the two countries. China's increasing influence in Brazil's trade is a significant development, and it has far-reaching implications for the global economy.
Implications for Brazil
The shift in trade dynamics has significant implications for Brazil. The country's exporters have been forced to hunt for new buyers, with 72 per cent of the companies assisted by the government trade promotion agency opening at least one market since the tariffs were imposed. This shift has also led to a decline in trade between the two countries, with total trade falling 12.8 per cent to US$36.4 billion.
Key points
- The US share of Brazilian exports fell to its lowest level since 1997 in the first half of 2026.
- China's share of Brazilian exports rose to 31.5 per cent from 28.9 per cent.
- Brazil's trade with the US declined 12.8 per cent to US$36.4 billion.
- 72 per cent of Brazilian companies assisted by the government trade promotion agency opened at least one new market since the tariffs were imposed.
If the trade dynamics between Brazil and China continue to grow, it could lead to increased economic cooperation and investment between the two countries. This could have a positive impact on Brazil's economy and help it to diversify its trade relationships.
However, the ongoing tariff war with the US could continue to have a negative impact on Brazil's trade, leading to further declines in exports and economic instability.
