What is going on in Yemen?

A Stalled Peace Process and Escalating Tensions

The situation in Yemen is complex and multifaceted, with various parties involved and competing interests at play. The Houthi group, which has controlled Sanaa and large parts of northern Yemen since 2014, has been launching attacks on government forces in various parts of the country, including Hodeidah, Marib, and al-Dhale. These attacks have coincided with controversy prompted by the arrival of an Iranian plane at Sanaa airport and renewed concern over navigation in the Red Sea.

The internationally recognized government, led by President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, has rejected the Iranian plane's request to operate a flight from Tehran to Sanaa, citing concerns over sovereignty and de facto recognition of Houthi authority over the entry point. This decision has been met with resistance from the Houthi group, which has insisted on the continuation of Mahan Air flights to Sanaa, presenting them as part of their right to operate the airport and open direct routes with the outside world.

The dispute over the airport has been ongoing for several days, with the Houthi group accusing the government of trying to restrict their access to the airport and the government accusing the Houthi group of trying to expand their influence over the airport. This has led to a stalemate in the peace process, with both sides refusing to budge.

The situation in Yemen is critical, with the conflict escalating and the internationally recognized government and the Houthi group at odds over issues such as airport management and prisoner exchange deals. The international community has been trying to broker a peace deal between the two sides, but so far, no agreement has been reached.

Limited Clashes and Tribal Mobilisation

The clashes between the Houthi group and government forces have been limited in scope, but they have had significant consequences. In the Hays district in Hodeidah governorate, the Houthi group launched an attack on government forces' positions using mortar shells, drones, and sniper fire. According to medical and military sources cited by Al Jazeera, 16 government soldiers were killed in the attack and 22 others were wounded.

The Houthis did not announce their casualty toll or provide a detailed account of how the clashes began. Hays is of particular importance because it has remained relatively calm since the truce, and because its location is close to the coast and shipping lanes.

The tensions are not confined to Hodeidah. Marib, Taiz, and al-Dhale have also witnessed varying levels of military mobilisation. In al-Jawf, the picture is different. A tribal disturbance was triggered by a dispute over a house in Sanaa and then turned into a test of the Houthis' influence and their relationship with the tribes.

Sheikh Hamad bin Rashid bin Fadgham al-Hazmi intervened in the dispute, per tribal custom, but was detained by the Houthis. This turned discontent into an anti-Houthi tribal movement, which is accompanied by calls for a 'tribal nakaf', a traditional call for mobilisation and support, alongside the 'al-Rayyan sit-ins', temporary tribal gatherings to rally supporters.

This development points to how developments in the battlefield are causing tensions in the tribal and social sphere. Al-Jawf lies near Marib and within a sensitive military and tribal zone, and any prolonged unrest there could open an additional pressure front on the Houthis and complicate their calculations in one of the most important fronts of Yemen's northeast.

Tensions in the Red Sea

Tensions have also extended to the Red Sea. On July 5, the British military said that a cargo ship had come under attack off the coast of Hodeidah, which did not result in any injuries. No one claimed responsibility, but the incident took place near an area under Houthi control and at a time when the group has renewed its threats regarding navigation.

The attack highlights the continuing risks ships face in transiting in the vicinity of Hodeidah and Bab al-Mandab, one of the world's busiest straits. The situation in the Red Sea is critical, with the Houthi group's threats and actions posing a significant risk to navigation and the global economy.

A Frozen Prisoner Exchange Deal

Tensions between Yemen's internationally recognized government and the Houthis have not been confined to the battlefield. On July 3, an Iranian aircraft arrived at Sanaa airport to pick up a Houthi delegation to attend the funeral of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

A week later, the internationally recognized government announced that Iran had submitted a request to operate a Mahan Air flight from Tehran to Sanaa to return the Houthi delegation. It rejected the request and proposed returning the individuals on an aircraft chartered by Yemenia Airways.

In response, some Houthi leaders insisted on the continuation of Mahan Air flights to Sanaa, presenting them as part of their right to operate the airport and open direct routes with the outside world. Thus, the dispute went beyond a single flight to the issue of managing an international airport and airspace outside government institutions, and the resulting struggle over sovereignty and de facto recognition of Houthi authority over the entry point.