A crucial governor’s primary just became Democrats’ biggest debacle
Wisconsin's Democratic primary has become a chaotic mess, with a crowded field of establishment-tied Democrats splitting the vote and democratic socialist Francesca Hong's energetic campaign gaining momentum. The party's attempt to coalesce around one candidate to stop Ho…
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Wisconsin's Democratic primary has descended into chaos, with a crowded field of establishment-tied Democrats splitting the vote and democratic socialist Francesca Hong's energetic campaign gaining momentum. The party's attempt to coalesce around one candidate to stop Hong has backfired, and the situation is now uncertain.
Imagine a big game of musical chairs, where a bunch of politicians are trying to get into the same chair. But instead of chairs, it's a primary election, and the chair is the governor's seat. The politicians are all trying to get into the chair, but they're not working together, and it's causing chaos. That's what's happening in Wisconsin's Democratic primary.
Analysis
A $60B Vote of Confidence
Wisconsin's Democratic primary has become a chaotic mess, with a crowded field of establishment-tied Democrats splitting the vote and democratic socialist Francesca Hong's energetic campaign gaining momentum. The party's attempt to coalesce around one candidate to stop Hong has backfired, and the situation is now uncertain.
The chaos is all the more shocking, because the state party, until recently, was often cited as a national model for Democrats, with leaders and candidates successfully coordinating over multiple cycles in a long-term plan to undo years of Republican dominance. I asked Jessie Opoien, a reporter for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, to walk me through this dizzying sequence of events.
How did the party find itself in this mess? Is Hong on a glide path to primary victory? And what awaits in the general election? Our conversation, which has been condensed and edited, is below.
Democrats began this race with optimism. Now, they’re a lot more worried.
Back before this primary began, what was the situation of the Wisconsin Democratic Party and the political status quo in the state?
Democrats were feeling more optimistic heading into this primary. We have a lot of really, really tight races here. But if you look at the past three state Supreme Court races, you had liberal candidates just really blowing it out of the water, no matter how much Republican money came in.
Democrats came out feeling pretty happy about those races. Another significant element is new legislative maps that got passed. This would be the second state election where they’re running on those new maps. So, for the first time in 15-ish years, Democrats are actually within striking distance of getting a majority or, at least, taking one of the chambers — or getting closer to the point where they’re not completely irrelevant in the capitol.
And the congressional map, which gives Republicans a 6-2 advantage, hasn’t changed yet — but that’s something Democrats could do if they win a trifecta? Yes, and some of the candidates running for governor have made that a priority.
How was Governor Evers viewed after his two terms?
We look at the Marquette University poll as our gold standard for approval ratings, and Evers is by far the most popular statewide politician they’ve polled, pretty much in the time of their existence. He’s been above 50 percent for pretty much all of his two terms.
That being said, there has been a little bit of friction, especially toward the end of the legislative session. The state had this large projected budget surplus that no one could agree on what to do with it. Evers and the Republican leaders of the legislature proposed this deal that included some tax relief and some school funding — and basically got no support from Democrats in the legislature.
They’ve probably gotten past it, but you had people starting to become a little bit more willing to be publicly critical of him.
The leading contenders to succeed Tony Evers Francesca Hong Sara Rodriguez
So, after Evers announces he isn’t running for another term, how does the race to succeed him kick off?
Early on, I think everyone was expecting the attorney general, Josh Kaul, to get in. He would have been the clear frontrunner, and we wouldn’t be in the situation we’re in right now.
Sara Rodriguez, the lieutenant governor, was the first person to get in, but she did not come in as an automatic frontrunner.
Mandela Barnes took a little bit longer to get in, but he did.
He’s the former lieutenant governor who lost a Senate race against Ron Johnson in 2022.
David Crowley, Milwaukee county executive: I think everyone expected his campaign to take off more at the beginning than it did.
Key points
- Wisconsin's Democratic primary has become a chaotic mess, with a crowded field of establishment-tied Democrats splitting the vote and democratic socialist Francesca Hong's energetic campaign gaining momentum.
- The party's attempt to coalesce around one candidate to stop Hong has backfired, and the situation is now uncertain.
- The chaos is all the more shocking, because the state party, until recently, was often cited as a national model for Democrats, with leaders and candidates successfully coordinating over multiple cycles in a long-term plan to undo years of Republican dominance.
If Francesca Hong wins the primary, she could bring a fresh perspective to the governor's office and potentially help Democrats win the general election. However, the party's attempt to coalesce around one candidate to stop Hong has backfired, and the situation is now uncertain.
The chaos surrounding the Wisconsin governor's primary could lead to a Democratic nominee who is not well-prepared to take on the challenges of the office, potentially harming the party's chances in the general election.
