Graduate job vacancies drop by almost 50% in a year, survey suggests
Graduate job vacancies on Adzuna fell to 8,383 in July from 15,397 a year earlier, the lowest level since the firm started recording in 2016.
Intelligence analysis by Llama
UK graduate job vacancies have nearly halved year-on-year according to Adzuna, hitting the lowest level since 2016. Employers cite rising costs and AI-driven restructuring, while youth unemployment stands at 16.2% and over a million young people are NEET.
Imagine a giant bulletin board where companies post jobs for new university graduates. Last year there were about 15,000 notes pinned up; this year there are only 8,000, and that's the fewest since 2016. Lots of young grown-ups are still looking for work, and some companies say computers are doing the beginner jobs now.
Analysis
The 2017 peak of 55,800
Adzuna's dataset stretches back to 2016, but the 2017 peak remains the reference point. The company says more than 55,800 graduate vacancies were listed at the high point — more than six times the 8,383 it recorded in July of this year. Losing over 85% of peak listings in less than a decade suggests structural rather than cyclical forces are at work. Employer national insurance and minimum wage increases have made junior hires expensive relative to the immediate value they deliver, and AI tools have given businesses a reason to skip entry-level hiring altogether, betting that fewer juniors can be supported by the same technology stack. Andrew Hunter, Adzuna's co-founder, said the figures show employers "still haven't found a reason to open up hiring" for recent graduates.
Alan Milburn's review
Former government minister Alan Milburn is leading a major review of the youth unemployment crisis, lending the issue formal political weight. He has previously pointed out that entry-level jobs are shrinking at the same time as part-time roles typically filled by teenagers and students, squeezing young people from both ends. Official data already places the UK youth unemployment rate — covering 16-to-24-year-olds — at 16.2% in the three months to March 2026, with the Neet population (not in education, employment or training) now exceeding one million. The review will need to address both demand-side issues, including employer cost and AI-driven screening of applications, and supply-side frictions such as skills mismatch. Without intervention, a missing rung early in a career compounds over decades in the form of permanently weaker earnings.
Andy Burnham's procurement rules
The article reports that Andy Burnham recently changed the rules for public contracts so that companies bidding for them must show how they will create jobs and training opportunities. Procurement policy is one of the few levers a public leader can pull to directly boost entry-level demand, and the move represents a shift toward using state spending to compensate for private-sector retrenchment. If enforced seriously, it could open a back channel for graduate and apprentice roles even as private listings contract. The risk is that mandates raise contract costs or are gamed by bidders who tick boxes without delivering real opportunities. Sector data is also diverging: travel, teaching and construction posted rising vacancies in recent weeks, while healthcare, nursing, hospitality and logistics all declined, suggesting any policy response needs to be sector-specific rather than blanket.
Key points
- Graduate vacancies on Adzuna fell from 15,397 to 8,383 year-on-year, a drop of nearly 46%.
- This is the lowest level since Adzuna began recording in 2016, against a 2017 peak of more than 55,800 listings.
- UK youth unemployment stands at 16.2% and over one million young people are NEET.
- Employers cite rising national insurance and minimum wage costs, plus AI, as reasons for cutting junior roles.
- Alan Milburn is leading a government review of youth unemployment, and public-contract rules have been changed to tie bidding to job creation.
If the Milburn review and the procurement-rule changes translate into concrete opportunities, the public sector could absorb graduates that private firms are shedding. Travel, teaching and construction are already adding roles, which could help rebalance the market. A sustained recovery combined with targeted training subsidies could restart entry-level hiring before the Neet population grows further.
If employers continue substituting AI for junior hires and the cost burden of national insurance and minimum wage increases persists, graduate vacancies could fall further below the 2016 baseline. The 2.14 seekers-per-vacancy ratio is already climbing, meaning more competition and longer unemployment spells. A whole cohort entering the labour market without formative work experience risks permanently weaker earnings trajectories.
