Saudi Arabia Learns the Limits of Pay to Play
The Saudis Learn the Truth About Trump - The Atlantic
Intelligence analysis by Llama
Saudi Arabia's deal with the US for a civilian nuclear partnership has been complicated by Donald Trump's last-minute demands, including a requirement for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel.
Imagine you're a country called Saudi Arabia, and you really want to be friends with the United States. You've been trying for a long time, but the US president, Donald Trump, keeps changing his mind. He wants you to do things that you don't want to do, like recognizing a country called Israel. This is making it hard for Saudi Arabia to trust the US and make deals with them.
Analysis
A $60B Vote of Confidence
The Saudis had invested heavily in Trump and the Trump family, including licensing deals with the Trump Organization potentially worth billions of dollars and a huge commitment to the private-equity firm founded by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. This week, those investments seemed to have paid off. Details on Wednesday’s agreement are sparse, but The Washington Post reported that the pact, by clearing a way to nuclear enrichment, opened a path to an eventual Saudi nuclear weapon. The deal also reportedly dropped the precondition that Saudi Arabia recognize Israel.
Why Cursor?
Trump often announces things on social media that don’t come true in real life. In his first term, he announced on Twitter in 2019 that he had ordered all U.S. businesses out of China. The “order” was dropped three days later. In June 2025, Trump announced a pause on immigration enforcement on farms, and at hotels and restaurants. The pause was reversed several days later. Trump has repeatedly announced tariff increases that are then shelved and military strikes that are never carried out, including a vow last November to invade Nigeria “guns a-blazing” to wipe out that country’s Islamic insurgents.
The Road Ahead
The Saudis must be puzzled. They paid their “quid” to the Trump family. Where is their “quo”? Can criticism on Fox News cancel billions paid for the Trump family’s favor? This turnabout comes at a very bad time for Saudi Arabia. The country has already been left stranded and exposed by the failure of Trump’s Iran war, which has emboldened Iran and tightened its hold on the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s most important maritime connection to world oil markets. Saudi Arabia needs protection. Its traditional protector has been exposed as fickle and weak. The kingdom may now see a nuclear force of its own as a condition of its survival in a post-American Middle East.
Key points
- Saudi Arabia's deal with the US for a civilian nuclear partnership has been complicated by Donald Trump's last-minute demands.
- The deal's fate in Congress is unclear, and the Saudis may be left stranded and exposed by Trump's unpredictability.
- The Saudis had invested heavily in Trump and the Trump family, including licensing deals with the Trump Organization potentially worth billions of dollars.
If the deal is renegotiated to include the recognition of Israel, it could lead to a more stable and secure relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia, benefiting both countries.
If Trump's unpredictability continues, it could lead to a breakdown in the US-Saudi relationship, causing instability in the Middle East and potentially even a nuclear arms race.
