What China can do to secure trade routes in its coming high-seas struggle with US
A prominent Chinese academic, Di Dongsheng, warns that China must prepare for a coming struggle with the US over sea power and the security of global shipping routes, advocating for a national consensus on "regaining mastery of the oceans."
Intelligence analysis by Gemini 2.5 Flash
Di Dongsheng, an associate dean at Renmin University, argues that the era of open oceans is ending as US-China economic ties shift towards competition. He advises China to direct overseas investment returns into defence spending and secure global maritime access over three decades to protect its sea-bound trade from potential threats.
Imagine the world's oceans are like big roads for ships carrying toys, food, and clothes between countries. A smart grown-up in China says these roads might not stay open and safe forever, especially because China and the US are becoming rivals. He thinks China needs to spend money and plan for a very long time, maybe 30 years, to make sure its ships can always get through safely, just like building its own strong, secure roads.
Analysis
Di Dongsheng's Warning
Di Dongsheng, a notable academic from Renmin University, has issued a stark warning regarding the future of global maritime trade. He posits that the long-standing era of open oceans is drawing to a close, primarily due to the escalating competition between the United States, a dominant naval power, and China, which heavily depends on sea-bound commerce. Di emphasizes the urgent need for China to develop a national strategy focused on securing its trade routes and preparing for a significant struggle over sea power.
His analysis suggests that while China has seen some success in recent economic disputes, the US remains intent on exploiting China's vulnerabilities. The security of maritime routes is identified as one of China's most significant "soft spots," making it a prime target in any future geopolitical contest. This perspective underscores a growing concern within Chinese strategic circles about the nation's economic lifeline.
Geopolitical Signals
Di Dongsheng points to a series of geopolitical events since the latter half of 2025 as critical "warning signals" indicating the diminishing openness of the seas. He specifically cites incidents around the Panama Canal, Greenland, and the Strait of Hormuz as evidence of this trend. These locations represent crucial chokepoints in global shipping, and any disruption there could severely impact international trade flows.
These events, according to Di, highlight a shift in the global maritime environment, where access and control over key waterways are becoming increasingly contested. For China, a nation whose import and export trade relies extensively on these routes, such developments pose an existential threat to its economic stability and growth. The academic's observations serve as a call to action for Beijing to proactively address these emerging challenges.
Three Decades to Dominance
Di Dongsheng projects that it could take approximately three decades for China to achieve dominance over and secure access to critical global maritime infrastructure, including ports, straits, canals, and shipping lanes. This ambitious timeline suggests a long-term, phased approach to building comprehensive sea power. During this transitional period, he cautions that a significant portion of China's maritime trade could face threats or even partial shocks.
To mitigate these risks and support this long-term strategic goal, Di recommends that China forge a national consensus on "regaining mastery of the oceans." Furthermore, he advises directing returns from overseas investments into defence spending, thereby bolstering the nation's capacity to protect its interests on the high seas. This dual approach of strategic investment and defence enhancement is deemed crucial for China's future economic security.
Key points
- A Chinese academic warns of an end to the era of open oceans due to US-China competition.
- China must prepare for a struggle over sea power and the security of global shipping routes.
- Maritime routes are identified as one of China's key vulnerabilities.
- Geopolitical events since late 2025 around the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Strait of Hormuz are seen as warning signals.
- It could take three decades for China to secure dominance over global maritime access.
- China should direct overseas investment returns into defence spending to bolster sea power.
If China successfully implements the proposed strategy, it could significantly enhance the security of its vital trade routes, reducing its vulnerability to geopolitical pressures. This proactive approach might lead to greater economic stability and allow China to maintain its global trade presence even amidst increased competition.
The proposed three-decade timeline for securing maritime dominance presents a prolonged period of vulnerability for China's sea-bound trade. During this time, any escalation in competition with the US or disruptions at critical chokepoints could severely impact China's economy, leading to significant import/export challenges and potential instability.
